Triathlon Prediction League Series Rules
Participants in the Triathlon Prediction League will predict their finishing times for each discipline of a triathlon: Swim, Cycle, and Run. Points are awarded based on the difference between predicted and actual times for each discipline. The closer the predicted time to the actual time, the fewer points a participant earns. The goal is to accumulate the fewest points across a series of races.
The league will also consider age group categories and gender categories, creating both an overall league and sub-leagues for fair competition. Special bonus prizes will be awarded for exact predictions, including the ultimate "Holy Grail" prize for predicting all three disciplines exactly in a single race.
Participation requires opting in and committing to completing at least 4 events in the series to be eligible for final prizes.
The specific races that form part of the Triathlon Prediction League series will be defined at the start of each race season. The full list of eligible races will be published on the UPrevail.events website before the season begins. Only these races will count towards league points and eligibility for final prizes.
Participants should consult the website for the race schedule and any updates to the eligible series races throughout the season.
The season runs from 1st March to 31st October.
Participants can enter different distances at different events and remain eligible for the series. It is not required to complete all 4 races as Sprint or all four as Olympic.
Each triathlon race consists of three disciplines, with varying distances:
Swim: Between 400m and 1900m
Cycle: Between 10km and 90km
Run: Between 2.5km and 20km
Before each race, participants must submit their predicted times for each discipline:
Swim time prediction (minutes and seconds)
Cycle time prediction (hours, minutes, and seconds)
Run time prediction (hours, minutes, and seconds)
Predictions are specific to each discipline, and no total time prediction is required.
Points are awarded based on how closely a participant’s predicted times match their actual times. The fewer points a participant earns, the better. Each discipline has a different weighting based on its relative distance:
Points are earned based on the difference between the predicted time and actual time, with penalties for each second of difference:
Swim Points: 1 point for every second difference
Cycle Points: 0.5 points for every second difference
Run Points: 0.75 points for every second difference
For a race with distances of 750m swim, 20km cycle, and 5km run:
A participant predicts:
Swim: 15 minutes
Cycle: 45 minutes
Run: 25 minutes
Actual race times:
Swim: 15 minutes and 30 seconds (30 seconds difference)
Cycle: 46 minutes (1 minute difference)
Run: 24 minutes and 40 seconds (20 seconds difference)
Points Calculation:
Swim Points: 30 seconds x 1 = 30 points
Cycle Points: 60 seconds x 0.5 = 30 points
Run Points: 20 seconds x 0.75 = 15 points
Total Score: 30 + 30 + 15 = 75 points
Participants will be grouped into both overall and sub-leagues based on age group and gender categories:
Age Groups:
18–39 years
40–49 years
50–59 years
60+ years
Gender Categories:
Male
Female
Non-binary
Distance Categories:
All Super Sprint
All Sprint
All Olympic
Mixed
The overall league will include all participants, while sub-leagues will rank participants within their specific age group and gender category. Winners will be recognized in both the overall league and their respective sub-leagues.
For each league and sub-league we will award prizes for winner and runner-up and require at least 5 participants in each category.
To participate in the Triathlon Prediction League, participants must opt in at the start of the series by completing the online form. Additionally, participants must commit to completing at least 4 races within the series to be eligible for the final prizes.
Participants who fail to complete 4 races will still be ranked based on their performance in the races they completed, but will not be eligible for overall or sub-league prizes.
In addition to overall and sub-league prizes, special bonus prizes will be awarded for accurate predictions:
Exact Prediction Bonus: A bonus prize will be awarded to any participant who predicts the exact time for any discipline (Swim, Cycle, or Run) in a race.
Holy Grail Bonus: The ultimate prize, the "Holy Grail," will be awarded to any participant who predicts the exact time for all three disciplines (Swim, Cycle, and Run) in a single race.
Bonus prizes will be awarded regardless of total points, and multiple participants can earn the same bonus if they achieve the same prediction feats.
The participant with the lowest total points across the series will be declared the overall league winner. Separate winners will be declared for each age group and gender category based on their total points.
In the event of a tie in points, the tie-breaker will be based on the smallest cumulative time difference across all completed races.
Predictions must be submitted before the start of each race.
Once submitted, predictions cannot be altered.
Failure to submit a prediction for an individual race, if entered, results in maximum points for each discipline in that race.
If a participant fails to finish a race, they receive the maximum points for that race, regardless of predictions.
Maximum Scores are based on expected cut off times and are as follows:
|
*inclusive of aquabike and aqua run formats |
Swim |
Cycle |
Run |
Total |
|
Super Sprint |
100 |
400 |
200 |
700 |
|
Sprint |
150 |
500 |
350 |
1000 |
|
Olympic |
250 |
750 |
500 |
1500 |
|
70.3 |
500 |
1200 |
800 |
2500 |
DNS (Did Not Start) score nothing and that event is removed from the series qualification.
The eligible series races are determined at the start of the season and listed on the UPrevail.events website, where participants can stay informed. With bonus prizes and the prestigious "Holy Grail" award, the league rewards both accuracy and consistency, providing ample opportunities for participants to succeed, not necessarily winning any races.