Participants in the Trail Run Prediction League will predict their finishing times for each Race. Points are awarded based on the difference between predicted and actual times. The closer the predicted time to the actual time, the fewer points a participant earns. The goal is to accumulate the fewest points across a series of races.
The league will also consider age group categories and gender categories, creating both an overall league and sub-leagues for fair competition. Special bonus prizes will be awarded for exact predictions, including the ultimate "Golden Shoe" prize for predicting three race times exactly in a single series.
Participation requires opting in and committing to completing at least 4 events in the series to be eligible for final prizes.
The specific races that form part of the Trail Run Prediction League series will be defined at the start of each race season. The full list of eligible races will be published on the UPrevail.events website before the season begins. Only these races will count towards league points and eligibility for final prizes.
Participants should consult the website for the race schedule and any updates to the eligible series races throughout the season.
The season runs from 1st August to 31st July.
Participants can enter different distances at different events and remain eligible for the series. It is not required to complete all 4 races as 5km or all four as 10km.
Participants can enter varying distances across the series
Between 5km to 60km
Before each race, participants must submit their predicted time using the prediction form at check out when booking:
Run time prediction (hours, minutes, and seconds)
Points are awarded based on how closely a participant’s predicted times match their actual times. The fewer points a participant earns, the better.
Points are earned based on the difference between the predicted time and actual time, with penalties for each second of difference:
Under 10km distance race points: 1 point for every second difference
Between 10km and 25km race points: 0.75 points for every second difference
Over 25km race points: 0.5 points for every second difference
For a participant racing distances of 5km, 10km, 10km and 25km as their 4 events:
A participant predicts:
5km: 35 minutes
10km: 45 minutes
10km: 55 minutes
25km: 1 hour 50 minutes
Actual race times:
5km: 35 minutes and 30 seconds (30 seconds difference)
10km: 46 minutes (60 seconds difference)
10km: 48 minutes and 40 seconds (6 minutes and 20 seconds difference)
25km: 2 hours 5 minutes 20 seconds (15minutes and 20 seconds difference)
Points Calculation:
5km: 30 seconds x 1 = 30 points
10km: 60 seconds x 0.75 = 45 points
10km: 380 seconds x 0.75 = 285 points
25km: 920 seconds x 0.5 = 460 points
Total Score: 30 + 45 + 285 + 460 = 820 points
Participants will be grouped into both overall and sub-leagues based on age group and gender categories:
Age Groups:
18–39 years
40–49 years
50–59 years
60+ years
Gender Categories:
Male
Female
Non-binary
The overall league will include all participants, while sub-leagues will rank participants within their specific age group and gender category. Winners will be recognized in both the overall league and their respective sub-leagues.
For each league and sub-league we will award prizes for winner and runner-up and require at least 5 participants in each category.
To participate in the Triathlon Prediction League, participants must opt in at the start of the series by completing the online form. Additionally, participants must commit to completing at least 4 races within the series to be eligible for the final prizes.
Participants who fail to complete 4 races will still be ranked based on their performance in the races they completed, but will not be eligible for overall or sub-league prizes.
In addition to overall and sub-league prizes, special bonus prizes will be awarded for accurate predictions:
Exact Prediction Bonus: A bonus prize will be awarded to any participant who predicts the exact time for any discipline (Swim, Cycle, or Run) in a race.
Golden Shoe Bonus: The ultimate prize, the "Golden Shoe," will be awarded to any participant who predicts the exact time for three races in a single race series.
Bonus prizes will be awarded regardless of total points, and multiple participants can earn the same bonus if they achieve the same prediction feats.
The participant with the lowest total points across the series will be declared the overall league winner. Separate winners will be declared for each age group and gender category based on their total points.
The best 4 results will be taken should any participant score in more than 4 events.
In the event of a tie in points, the tie-breaker will be based on the smallest cumulative time difference across all completed races.
Predictions must be submitted at time of entry.
Once submitted, predictions can be altered using the member profile on the website. This will be closed at a specified date for each event.
Failure to submit a prediction for an individual race, if entered, results in maximum points in that race.
Only official race timing is used for the compilation of results, times and scores.
If a participant fails to finish a race, they receive the maximum points for that race, regardless of predictions.
Maximum Scores are based on race distances and are as follows:
Under 10km distance race points: 100 points per KM (maximum 1000)
Between 10km and 25km race points: 75 points per KM (minimum 750)
Over 25km race points: 50 points per KM (minimum of 1250)
DNS (Did Not Start) score nothing and that event is removed from the series qualification.
The eligible series races are determined at the start of the season and listed on the UPrevail.events website, where participants can stay informed. With bonus prizes and the prestigious "Golden Shoe" award, the league rewards both accuracy and consistency, providing ample opportunities for participants to succeed, not necessarily winning any races.